2009/03/11

The good thing about the world economic crisis

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... or global economics structural change, a title that would fit better.

Well, the good thing is: It hurts all.

This is good because there's no unscathed power that could use a phase of relative strength to prepare for war like Stalin did in the 30's.

The quantity of arms production in the Soviet Union was incredible - it only lacked well-trained personnel to use all the hardware. Much of it was outdated by 1941 (especially the aircraft like the revolutionary Polikarpov I-16 and SB-2 and the incredibly numerous T-26 and BT-5 tanks).

This time we had all great and regional powers integrated into the world economy, and all are suffering - albeit for different reasons and likely with much different effects in the medium and long term.

I expect a reset of the international imbalance of power in the next decade - NATO will remain (if it survives) too strong to be attacked (well, except probably in the Baltics or if we're dumb enough to add exclave members).

This reset will mirror long-term changes instead of sudden medium-term advantages, though.

Sven Ortmann

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